With the development of the photovoltaics (PV) industry, an emphasis on low price based advantages has been gradually replaced by a commitment to “quality first”. Both owners and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors seek higher-quality PV products, and PV product manufacturers themselves are placing more and emphasis on the quality of PV products.

Subpar PV equipment that cannot ensure a 25 year service life will exponentially increase the cost of PV-generated power and the volatility of project earnings.

How can a balance be maintained between quality and cost? Which kinds of technology are most competitive in the market? And what should we do to achieve grid parity? 

 On 13-14 March 2017, the “All Quality Matters” 2017 Solar Congress and Award Ceremony organized by the TÜV Rheinland Group (TÜV Rheinland) were held in Wuxi, Jiangsu. In an exclusive interview with SolarBe.com, Dr Zhongwei Zhang, Chief Technology Officer at HT-SAAE, predicted important trends in the PV industry.

What Kinds of Technology have Become Most Competitive in Recent Years? 

Under the 2016 PV Top Runner Program, according to the bidding documents for Yangquan, Ruicheng and Baotou, PV modules whose conversion rate meets stipulated indicators (17% for monocrystalline silicon and 16.5% for polycrystalline silicon) receive five bonus points, and technologies such as PERC, black silicon, n-type bifacial cells, IBC and HIT receive three bonus points. In Jining, Xintai and Lianghuai, bonus points can also be accrued by MWT technologies under the 2016 PV Top Runner Program.

But which of these technologies is most likely to get ahead in the future? 

Dr Zhongwei Zhang Emphasises PERC and N-type Bifacial PERT Cells.

Dr Zhang believed that whether a technology is advantageous is determined by three factors: market demand at different stages, product cost performance and resource use rate. As many enterprises in the Chinese PV industry have established numerous production lines over years of development, it would take a very long time to integrate new technology such as IBC cells with existing equipment. However, existing production lines can be upgraded using PERC and n-type bifacial PERT cells simply by adding production processes and equipment to produce more efficient cells and PV modules.

Of course, other technologies also have considerable potential.

According to Dr Zhang, it is practical for newly established enterprises to build production lines using bifacial HIT cells, but the cost of equipment and the consumption of the ITO target material and silver paste should be reduced. “Busbar-free cell strips and MBB modules can increase the power of positive electric currents and modules, as well as efficiently lowering the consumption of silver paste”. Dr Zhang also praised the reliability of HT-SAAE’s MBB modules, each containing 16 automatically welded busbars, which rarely cause electrical leakage or heat marks. In addition, Dr Zhang noted, MWT cells can enhance electrical current power and efficiency, but current leakage and assembly costs should be reduced.

How to Reach Grid Parity by Lowering Costs in the PV Industry

In response to the National Energy Administration’s call for a shift in focus from installation capacity (kW) to power generation capacity (kWh), more and more enterprises in the PV industry have begun to emphasise the cost of PV-generated power relative to initial installation cost. Meanwhile, based on the formula for calculating the cost of PV-generated power over the life-cycle of a PV system, investment enterprises are promoting on-grid bidding and establishing stricter requirements for PV companies.

To realise the common goal of grid parity in the PV industry, it is critical to reduce the cost of components and BOS. As noted by Dr Zhang, component costs have three dimensions: material costs, process costs (operational costs) and management costs. Silicon materials are the most promising target for cost reduction.

According to Dr Zhang, “the cost of non-silicon materials won’t slump, and it’s very hard to predict trends in the cost of metallic materials, although the cost of precious metal usually tends to rise.” To achieve grid parity, he argued, technical methods should be used to reduce the cost of silicon materials and process costs to reduce module price to less than RMB 2. Manufacturers should also reduce the thickness of monocrystalline silicon slices to less than 100 um and avoid smashing such slices; diamond wire cutting technology can be adopted to lower the cost of polycrystalline silicon slices, but polycrystalline silicon slices less than 170 um thick are more likely to shatter. In the future, noted Dr Zhang, mass-production technologies such as high-purity silica production methods will reduce the cost of silicon materials, in turn making cells and components cheaper. Notably, product quality should be guaranteed and continuous effort made to find scientific ways of cutting down the consumption of materials. Dr Zhang emphasised the importance of adopting technical methods to save costs rather than compromising workmanship or material quality.

In addition, research and development activities should be conducted to facilitate the manufacturing of PV modules that improve the power generation efficiency of PV systems and reduce the cost of PV-generated power by increasing modules’ power generation per unit area, reducing BOS costs and achieving the most cost-effective performance over the whole industry chain. Dr Zhang offered the example of a 1,500-V module, which is more costly than an ordinary component but reduces the overall cost of a PV system by RMB0.15/W, making its use worthwhile.

Manufacturers and Investment Enterprises Must Remain Up to Date to Secure Win-win Results 

Dr Zhang also urged third-party inspection agencies to draw up standards that reflect the latest developments in the industry and adhere to the principle of fairness. He expected these third-party agencies to help manufacturers and investment enterprises to achieve win-win results.

Although many enterprises, including HT-SAAE, are currently manufacturing bifacial cells and components, no relevant national inspection standards have been established, even by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). Therefore, Dr Zhang hoped that authoritative inspection and certification institutions such as TÜV Rheinland will take the lead in formulating relevant alliance standards or industrial standards for product acceptance. He stressed that the standard for bifacial cells should reflect the combined power generation efficiency of both positive and negative solar panels, rather than the efficiency of only one side, as the latter measurement is neither scientific nor conducive to the selling of bifacial cells.

Focusing on the internal rate of return (IRR), end investors are placing increasingly stringent demands on manufacturers, which Dr Zhang felt may create an imbalance between product quality and profit margin. He pointed out that the quality of a PV system is measured in three dimensions: design quality, project quality and quality of components. Currently, 60% of power plant malfunctions are caused by subpar components. If the profit of power plants is prioritised, the output of inferior and subpar components will increase due to the reduction in product cost. Dr Zhang, predicted that as a result, power plant malfunctions will rise to 80% or even 90%, and that their unstable power generation will eventually threaten end investment enterprises. He also argued that when inspecting power plants, third-party inspection agencies should help enterprises to realise reasonable profits, balance the industrial chain and achieve win-win results. “If capital floods into power plants but no one is willing to plough money into manufacturers, it will be impossible for end investors to achieve a high IRR when the prices of production materials, equipment and products increase”.